USSoccerPlayers Graig Carbino looks at his playoff predictions as we await the Conference finals.
By Graig Carbino --
ALBANY, NY (Nov 13, 2008) USSoccerPlayers -- Three out of four isn’t bad, right? As the Eastern and “Western” conference finals draw near, I must reflect back a few weeks ago to my not so mathematical, pulled from a hat predictions for the first round of the MLS playoffs.
Back on October 29th before all the madness began, I had Columbus over the Wiz and Chi-town over the Revs. Those two teams needed to get it done and they did not disappoint. I also plucked Real Salt Lake as my upset special and they didn’t let me down either. Houston over the team formerly known as the Metrostars did not work out quite as well. Let’s dissect shall we.
Columbus didn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence in their opening conference semifinal match against Kansas City. A 1-1 draw on the road isn’t what I was looking for but I suppose Crew fans will take it. The result would have been even worse if it weren’t for rookie Kevin Lenhart’s stoppage time equalizer. Plus, the black and yellow knew that they were going back to the cauldron that is Crew Stadium for the second leg of the series.
Ok sorry, I can’t even type that with a straight face.
Just over 11,000 fans turned out to see the Crew eventually dispatch the game Wizards 2-0 at home to move on to the Eastern Conference finals. Goals from Brad Evans and Robbie Rogers saw Columbus through and they will now look forward to their home match this evening against the charging Chicago Fire. Lets hope for everyone’s sake that a few more Crew supporters can make it out on a work night to cheer on their team.
If Columbus needed to win their series, the Fire’s match-up with New England was life or death. Chicago has continually disappointed in the playoffs, but this year they would have no excuse. They were playing well and seemed to be getting the Revolution at just the right time. Then game one came and went with no goals in front of a few vendors and security guards at Foxboro and Chicago had not staked themselves out to any sorts of an advantage.
Columbus had come back in their series and not made me look too bad. Excuse me for not having the same faith in the Fire. Luckily despite my skepticism Chicago took care of business at home with a comfortable 3-0 victory at home behind goals from Chris Rolfe, Wilman Conde and Gonzalo Segares. I was two for two in the east and moving on to the Western bracket looking a pretty good bet for the first round sweep.
Real Salt Lake kept the magic alive at Rio Tinto Stadium with Yura Movsisyan again popping up with a last minute goal to send RSL back to California with a 1-0 series advantage. Game two went back and forth with Sacha Kljestan getting Chivas on the board first with a 30th minute penalty kick. Salt Lake would respond with goals in the 39th and 77th minutes from Dema Kovalenko and Javier Morales respectively. Then things got interesting.
Rookie Justin Braun scored a tying goal in the 83rd minute that sent everyone’s nerves through the roof. Kljestan came close with a shot from just inside the box and Chivas poured on the pressure in waves for the final few minutes. It wasn’t meant to be for the goats in the end as the team from Sandy held on and kept me a perfect three for three going into the final semifinal round game on Sunday between the Houston Dynamo and New York Red Bulls.
Everything looked to be going according to plan for Houston as the first leg concluded in New York. They left the Meadowlands with a 1-1 draw, a fine result for a team like the Dynamo that is so good at home. Then Sunday November 9th came around, and in front of over 30,000 fans at home Houston was destroyed. They weren’t just beaten; they were decimated by a 3-0 score line.
Sure, Houston had a ton of chances throughout the match and young goalkeeper Danny Cepero practically stood on his head, but a loss is loss. Please, spare all of us this “they took their chances and we didn’t take ours” wordplay. New York went into Houston with a purpose, and they came out with their reward. Count me among the many that never saw this coming.
I wrote things like “probably not the nicest way of putting it, but let’s get serious for a minute. No one out there actually thinks the Red Bulls have a chance in this series, right?”
Yikes…. I also wrote “in the simplest terms, they are just way too good for RBNY.” On paper, Houston probably is the better team. The problem is that when the games started they looked old and beat down, while New York looked young and full of life. I predicted the Dynamo would take this series by at least four goals. All I can say is hey, three out of four isn’t bad.
If I have learned anything about making predictions it is that the process isn’t a ton a fun. The person making the forecast really has nothing to gain. If you pick the higher seeds and they all win, you look like a simple front-runner. If you pick a bunch of upsets and they don’t work out, you look like you haven’t been paying attention. That’s why from this point on I'm not predicting what color shirt I'll be wearing tomorrow. Let the other prognosticators have their fun, I am cashing out. Enjoy the rest of the playoffs.
Ok, maybe not. Sorry. I can’t go out like that. Chicago 2-1 over Columbus and New York 2-0 over Real Salt Lake. Take it or leave it. Now tune in tonight and see how we did.
Graig Carbino covers American Abroad and writes a weekly column for USSoccerPlayers. Contact him at graiger11@yahoo.com
