By J Hutcherson - WASHINGTON, DC (Mar 30, 2011) US Soccer Players -- Once again, Major League Soccer has inserted itself in the conversation for what counts as a big league sport in North America. It's a short list, headed by the National Football League in terms of popularity, Major League Baseball in terms of history, and the arena sports basketball and hockey. And I don't mean MLS inserted itself in theory. In a press release last week congratulating itself on diversity, the League referred to itself as one of "the five major pro sports leagues."
In fairness, if five leagues were included in the diversity survey, maybe you get away with using 'major' in that context. That doesn't explain the headline of the press release: MLS remains most diverse among "Big Five" sports leagues. We're going to set aside the point of the press release and simply congratulate MLS on being the most representative when they're the sport that draws from the widest Worldwide base of professional quality players and lacks any physical requirement like height or size. But hey, congratulations. Instead, let's talk about Major League Soccer's place among those "Big Five."
Some would already take that next step, staying at four and replacing the National Hockey League with MLS. It's worth stressing that we're talking about MLS specifically here, rather than say the appeal of all professional soccer. So is anybody buying this?
MLS has made gains in recent years mainly through expansion. Anybody paying attention should see that. But to push aside a league like the NHL who has had their own major moments in recent seasons seems silly in the abstract and borderline arrogant for anybody taking this seriously.
After all, Major League Soccer still can't match the wider appeal of the big games in the other sports. Call the NHL's outdoor Winter Classic a gimmick if you want, but MLS knows it needs a European giant as the opponent to have any chance of filling an NFL stadium.
Let's make another comparison, listing the cities where the NHL brand of hockey and the MLS brand of soccer work in attracting paying customers. The direct comparison doesn't work because there are 30 teams to MLS's 18, but as a percentage where would you put the number of MLS markets where attendance isn't disappointing?
Over the 2010 regular season, the MLS average attendance was 16,675. Nine of the 16 teams were below that average, but two of those were playing in undersized stadiums. The 2009-10 NHL season had 19 teams above the MLS average playing an 80 game schedule with higher ticket prices and without the cushion of being able to schedule the bulk of their games on Saturdays. They played to 93% capacity last season, increasing to 95% late in the season.
We'll leave this with attendance, but the business comparison also won't show the NHL as a league in decline. Whatever place MLS rightly holds in the North American sporting landscape, it's not edging out the NHL now or in the near future. It's also playing with terms to decide to increase the number of big leagues from four to five. It took hockey a long time to get people to move that from three to four. That's what happens when you spend too long as a regional league.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas
With no MLS team in the Southeast or in 11 of the top 20 US metropolitan markets, MLS is in a similar situation to where the NHL was in the 70's and 80's. It might be a big league to the people that care about it and a major draw in certain cities, but it's tough to put it in the conversation with the NFL, MLB, NBA, or the NHL. Not yet anyway.
Trying to blur that line isn't going to help the profile of Major League Soccer. After all, there's an argument that's already been made that it's NASCAR that belongs in the Big group. NASCAR's recent slide in attendance and interest is one of the reason even this unofficial grouping tends to take the long view. Still, it's hard to dismiss NASCAR when they've got a multi-tiered feeder system that connects them with places small and large all over the country. Yet one of their public perception issues has been to even get thought of as a sport, so we'll leave it at leagues.
In big picture terms, the problems that a league like the NHL might face that would cause them to drop out of the Big Four are problems MLS would like to have. They're those of a truly major league without having to alter that definition to suit their shortcomings. There's also no guarantee that any of the Big Four falling significantly in public appeal and perception means switching them out for MLS. It could simply mean a return to the Big Three, a group of leagues with more in common with each other and the big soccer leagues of Europe than anything else.
Comments, questions, solutions to problems that have yet to present themselves. Please, tell me all about it.
