By Jason Davis – WASHINGTON, DC (Apr 22, 2011) US Soccer Players -- The action, so to speak, when it come to the MLS standings happens on two levels, just as it does in most league around the World. The top of the table gets the lion’s share of attention, and rightly so.
Even in MLS, where the top points earner wins a secondary trophy, the race for first place is hotly contested. Winning the points title doesn’t guarantee anything in the playoffs, but as the Supporters’ Shield slowly grows in prestige, finishing number one has importance. Absent promotion and relegation - something American soccer may never see - the secondary battle front isn’t the foot of the table, it’s the middle.
Playoffs qualification is possible for more than half the league in 2011. Not even 34 games will shake out much separation between clubs for whom mediocrity will be enough to get them into the post-season. All it takes is a ticket to the dance to have a legitimate chance to bring home the trophy. In previous years, that meant treading water and staying out of losing streaks. As long as just enough wins were sprinkled in, draws were fine.
If there’s one thing the early going of 2011 has shown, it’s that simply not losing might not be enough to keep MLS teams above the playoff water line. Four teams (Vancouver, Seattle, TFC, and New England) sit at 1-2-3 for a total of six points. Only Vancouver is in a playoff position, and while it would be easy to dismiss the early results as indicative of nothing over the long haul, more teams means more clutter. Bunching is almost certain as clubs fight for any measure of consistency.
The League looks like it’s shifting: a handful of top teams are imposing themselves on the rest, leaving the bulk of MLS to scrap for the remains. It’s a parity of the mediocre. Wins matter more.
In 2009 with 15 teams in the League, eventual MLS winners Real Salt Lake snuck into the playoffs with 40 points. In 2010 with 16 teams in the mix, San Jose and Colorado were the last teams in with 46 points. Add four more games to every team’s schedule, and it’s seems logical that it will take 50 points or more to get into the playoffs in 2011.
The trouble for our four paragons of early season mediocrity is that they’re even more behind the curve than their records indicate. Their six collected points come from six games. The clubs directly ahead of them have a game in hand.
Four teams, identical starts, but very different pressures created by very different expectations. New England is desperate for a return to their previous status as MLS playoff perennial. Seattle made the playoffs in their first two seasons, so a miss in year three would be a massive disappointment and a perceived step back. TFC needs a whiff of success to satisfy fans alienated by chronic mismanagement. Vancouver, in their first MLS season, is the only one of the four free to finish almost anywhere in the table without risking backlash.
Winning at home is what will decide which, if any, of these mid-table teams make the post-season. Want to make the playoffs? Win all the points when you’re playing in front of your own fans in a comfortable environment.
Of our four 1-2-3ers, only Vancouver has yet to lose a game at home. Toronto fell hard against DC United. Seattle couldn’t overcome LA in front of a massive crowd. New England lost to a Real Salt Lake team playing a backup lineup.
It will be the team(s) that limit their home defeats and manage wins instead of draws that will emerge to grab a playoff position. With the pack thickening by the year while clubs like LA, RSL, and New York race on ahead and assert a level of dominance, pushing for three points, especially at home is more necessary than ever. Being conservative and playing not to lose is a recipe for potential disaster. When the dust settles at the end of the regular season, teams that turned draws into three points will find themselves playing for a title.
Vancouver’s home field advantage is muted by their expansion status and the fact they have no MLS history to look to. TFC, after building up a great atmosphere, suddenly looks ripe for home defeats. New England’s ability to win at home has waned as the club’s general fortunes have waned, and no one thinks Gillette is particularly daunting for visiting sides.
That leaves Seattle, after two expansion cycles still Major League Soccer’s pride and joy when it comes to home field. If they can run off a string of victories at home, and augment those wins with any points at all on the road, the Sounders are the best bet of the quartet.
Throughout the season, that level in the table - otherwise known as the playoff bubble - will be where much of the action is. It’s nothing new in this League with this setup, but as the size of the competition grows, the nature of the battles will change. Tweaks in the salary rules and the magic happening on the Great Salt Lake are changing the shape of the table. Every point is just that much more essential and with few truly poor outfits at the bottom of the standings, perhaps more difficult to pick up than even the parity of MLS typically makes them.
Without the drama of a relegation battle, the race for the last few playoffs spots works as a unique secondary story. Only, instead of the League’s worst teams clawing for survival, MLS gives us a clump of average teams striving for a second chance in the playoffs.
Jason Davis is the founder of MatchFitUSA.com. Contact him: matchfitusa@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: http://twitter.com/davisjsn.
