By J Hutcherson - WASHINGTON, DC (Aug 12, 2011) US Soccer Players -- Let's start with the obvious. Manchester United would have to suffer a collapse of tremendous proportions not to come away with another Premier League trophy this season. Picking against United at this point is simple contrariness. Other would-be contenders are worse off than they were the last time we saw them in a competitive game and the teams that have made improvements shouldn't threaten United. It's theirs to lose in a way we haven't seen in a couple of seasons.
Liverpool as my against the odds pick, and there's no point trying to be clever with Chelsea. They'll battle City for third-place, with both teams treating that like an insult. If my predictions hold, that means Arsenal finishing outside of the top four for the first time in years. Squeaking in as the 5th-place club to claim that final guaranteed European slot is also borderline insulting for our friends from North London, but this is a club in transition that will need more than a season to shake things out.
What that means for the National Teamers in England is a tough road to have a shot at European soccer next season. It's certainly unlikely to happen with a top-five finish, and it would take a lot for any of these clubs to slot in at sixth or seventh place.
Brad Friedel's surprising move to Spurs has to be the top choice for an American club over-achieving. That's what last season's 5th-place finish felt like, getting the better of Liverpool by four points but trailing Arsenal by six. Liverpool have bought themselves the benefit of the doubt in the group of clubs that finished between 5th and 7th last season. Regardless of how smart their spending was, they spent. Spurs aren't in the same category, and Liverpool should be the only team crashing the top four party.
Clint Dempsey's Fulham qualified for Europe through the relative wonder of UEFA's Fair Play table, a backdoor route that doesn't exactly need a lap of honor. Last season, they finished top of a group of teams separated by three points covering 8th to 14th place. That should be underlined by all the clubs in that group as a motivator to teams like Fulham to hold their position and teams like Stuart Holden's Bolton in 14th to see a direct route to the top half of the table. Closer to reality, it's a trap door that could see good teams slide down the table.
Holden's injury and a shock 5-0 loss to Stoke City in the FA Cup semifinals all derailed Bolton's 2010-11 season. They'll be trying to be like Fulham in 2011-12, good enough to stay in the top-half of the table and ignoring the pull of a bunch of clubs that would very much like to drag them down. Both should be in the top 10.
Tim Howard's Everton might be the worst good team in the Premier League over the last few seasons. What do I mean by that? It's the nagging feeling that this same group of players could just as easily be 7th or 12th. You can't really point to anything special about them as a group, and their run of top 10 finishes should come to an end this season.
They'll still finish higher than Brad Guzan and Eric Lichaj's Aston Villa, a club that still hasn't gotten over manager Martin O'Neill leaving just before the start of last season. 2010-11 was forgettable for anything except that surprising top-10 finish, complete with health issues forcing yet another managerial change. 9th-place a point behind Fulham was a testament to a squad overreaching, and that three point difference between 9th and 15th looms large. This time around, they shouldn't be as fortunate.
On the bright side, unlike last season we don't have to build up a team likely to be relegated. There are enough candidates to fill those roles without dragging a National Teamers Abroad club into the mix. Plus, there's Jonathan Spector playing at Birmingham City, not only likely to make a quick return to the Premier League but playing in the Europa League as a Championship club.
The fun starts on Saturday with our first look at National Teamers Abroad clubs when Aston Villa host Fulham at 10pm on ESPN2. This game replaces the originally scheduled Spurs - Everton game that has been postponed due to the rioting in North London.
Comments, questions, solutions to problems that have yet to present themselves. Please, tell me all about it.
